BOISE, Idaho — Although 2021 is days away, the last two months have been the worst of the year for COVID-19 infection, in Idaho and across the country. Idaho's daily case count peaked in early December, recording as many as 2,000 new cases per day.
Over the past few weeks, however, the daily case count in Idaho has been decreasing. Despite this, Dr. Kathryn Turner, Idaho's deputy state epidemiologist is concerned about what the new year could mean for infection rates.
“We definitely saw an uptick after Thanksgiving,” she said. “We think things are looking okay, but we just had another holiday and we anticipate we will see another bump up."
Hospitalizations have also been decreasing since early December when they were at their highest.
“The fact that we got so close that we were actually talking about implementing crisis standards of care should've been a wakeup call to everyone,” Turner said.
The state released the latest hospitalization data from Dec. 26 on Monday. While the number did decline, not all hospitals in Idaho reported their numbers over the holiday.
“Our hospitals are still really full,” Turner said. “All it's going to take is an uptick like we might see after this holiday to push us over that edge.”
While cases and hospitalizations are currently declining, November and December were the deadliest months during the pandemic. More than 750 Idahoans lost their lives to COVID-19 in the last two months, according to data from the state.
“The number of deaths due to COVID have increased in November and December, just like the number of cases, just like the number of hospitalizations, just a little bit later,” Turner said.
A decrease in the number of tests conducted has also contributed to the daily case decline. The positivity rate, however, is also declining.
The latest available data from the week of Dec. 13-19 shows the state positivity rate at 12.5%m down from 15.5% the week before..
“We are seeing a sustained decrease. Again, we are optimistic and thrilled to see any decrease in any metric," Turner said. “We’re also holding our breath because we think we’re going to see a post-holiday bump up in test positivity and case counts.”
While the last two months have been devastating, there is hope thanks to the arrival of the COVID-19 vaccine.
“In order for people to go back to normal, we need to make sure we have a large proportion of our population vaccinated,” Turner said.
Both residents and employees at long-term care facilities received the first shipment of the vaccine. According to a table from the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare, the general public can expect to get vaccinated sometime after May 2021.
The state has separated the population into four distinct groups. Right now, the state is vaccinating the first group, healthcare personnel and long-term care facility residents.
The next group is essential workers and older adults. This includes first responders, school staff and teachers, correctional staff, grocery and convenience store workers, and more. The state estimates this group will begin receiving the vaccine in February.
The next group is high-risk individuals and those with medical conditions. This includes adults 65 years of age or older, people aged 16-64 years with a medical condition that would increase the risk for severe COVID-19 symptoms, and essential workers not included in previous phases.
The general public makes up the last phase and should expect to receive the vaccine in the spring.
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