BOISE, Idaho — There’s a hope that Idaho's economy can quickly recuperate after the coronavirus pandemic, which has forced businesses to close their doors and caused many Idahoans to file for unemployment.
However, financial experts with the city of Boise don’t expect a sudden recovery for the city’s economy.
“It’s likely after we contain this initial outbreak, we’re probably going to see some subsequent and, hopefully, smaller outbreaks in the future,” Data Strategist Kyle Patterson said. “I think that drives how the city will act. We don’t want to end social distancing all at once.”
Patterson believes that the virus will largely dictate when the economy will start to open back up.
“This is an area where there is a lot of uncertainty,” he said. “I'm somebody that really cares about data-driven decision making but we're in a situation where there isn't a whole lot of data, this is new for us.”
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It’s not a secret the pandemic is hurting businesses. On a warm and sunny Wednesday afternoon, Downtown Boise was pretty quiet, and many businesses had signs indicating they were closed indefinitely. It’s the lack of economic activity that is hurting the city.
“We're preparing for somewhere between seven and ten million [dollars] but we're going to continue to monitor that,” Boise Budget Manager Eric Bilimoria said.
That's a projection of how much money the city itself could lose between April and June, the third fiscal quarter. It’s just a projection though because this pandemic is pretty new.
“I think that you know from a financial perspective, we are certainly aware of what is happening outside the doors of City Hall,” Bilimoria said. “But for those numbers to filter into our financial picture is going to take a little bit more time.”
While the statewide stay-at-home order isn't good for business, Patterson said, looking back at history shows these kinds of steps can speed up the recovery process.
“What we do know is that from previous pandemics like the 1918 influenza pandemic, those cities who put restrictions very early and kept those in place until the virus was held at bay were much more economically successful in the long term,” he said.
Right now, the city is continuing to monitor the numbers and adjusting where they can to maximize cost-savings.
“We’re still just monitoring the situation seeing what the impact is going to be on the short term,” Director of Finance and Administration Lynda Lowry said. “We’re trying to estimate that and what the potential is for the longer-term impact, if we see a slight recession coming out of this or not.”
The city is seeing some immediate impacts to downtown parking revenue and revenue from development fees, but an estimate or exact dollar figure couldn’t be immediately provided. The city is also anticipating losing revenue from Parks and Recreation.
One of the cost-savings methods the city is employing now is by suspending most hiring. Bilimoria told KTVB a position won’t be filled unless it’s a key position.
They’re also reviewing operation and maintenance budgets to see what can be saved.
“We’ve been pretty prudent and fiscally responsible,” Lowry said. “We feel like we have the appropriate funding at this time and the measures we’ve taken on cost savings to be able to weather the storm in the intermediate term.”
Ultimately, there is no clear answer on when the economy will return to what it was before the pandemic.
“I don't have the answer to that question, and I won't pretend to,” Patterson said. “The virus is going to decide what it wants to do, and we have to be prepared with whatever that is.”
KTVB reached out to the Idaho Division of Financial Management to ask about the state’s economic outlook. A spokesperson for the state emailed back saying it would be premature to release an estimated timeline of when the economy will return to how it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.
The division will continue to monitor Idaho’s revenue forecasts and publish them as the information becomes available.
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