CANYON COUNTY, Idaho — Let's start with statewide numbers -- Idaho is growing, and that means a lot of new homes. In fact, according to Census data, more than one-fifth of the homes in Idaho (20.01%) were built in 2010 or later. That's the fourth highest rate in the country. So, although builders are struggling to keep up with demand, there are still a lot of new homes in the area.
Real Estate Markets Year-Over-Year (September - Intermountain MLS)
- ADA COUNTY:
- Homes Sold - DOWN 17.6%
- Median Price - DOWN 0.9%
- TWIN FALLS COUNTY:
- Homes Sold - DOWN 13.2%
- Median Price - DOWN 4.4%
But that doesn't mean homes are selling at the rate and price they were this time last year. These are the latest numbers from the Intermountain MLS for September. Home sales in Ada County are down more than 17 percent and the median price is down almost a percent. In Twin Falls County, home sales are down more than 13 percent and the median price is down more than 4 percent compared to last year. This is not shocking. This same market cooling is what we saw through the spring and summer. However, that's not the trend happening everywhere!
Real Estate Markets Year-Over-Year (September - Intermountain MLS)
- CANYON COUNTY:
- Homes Sold - UP 17.4%
- Median Price - DOWN 2.6%
- JEROME COUNTY:
- Homes Sold - UP 84.6%
- Median Price - UP 12.9%
Here’s a snapshot at the markets in the counties next door to those two. First, in Canyon County, homes sales are not dropping. In fact, they're up by more than 17 percent. They were up in August, as well. The median price is down, though not by a lot. However, still a relief for buyers since the mortgage rates are up. And in Jerome, it's a small sample size (just a couple dozen homes have sold), but that's up more than 84 percent from last year. The median price is up almost 13 percent. So, what's going on here?
We'll focus on Canyon County. According to William and Ashley Kaiser of Kaiser Real Estate, a lot of those home sales were new builds. So again, builders are still building in Idaho. In fact, they say Nampa last year was the number one growing city in the U.S. as far as growth in commercial building. Why is the housing market there bucking the trend and heating up when everything else keeps cooling down? First, there is more room in Canyon County, it hasn't been built out as much as Ada.
Second, Ashley Kaiser said the county didn't appreciate in values as much back when the market saw an increase of 30% in the past two years. "So, Canyon County increased slower and so we will likely continue to see a trend where more homes are sold in Canyon County," Kaiser elaborated. "One, they're more affordable, you get more bang for your buck. And things in Canyon County are growing and a lot of people are seeing that they can get a little bit more out here than they can in Ada County."
So, will those trends in Canyon County continue and will the trends in Ada County turn around, whether we want them to or not? It's impossible to predict. In fact, the Kaiser's said some homebuyers have gotten themselves into real trouble counting on the market to zig...but the market zagged instead.
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