BOISE, Idaho — This article originally appeared in the Idaho Press.
Idaho’s population growth has cooled compared to the peak of remote work and COVID-19 that brought droves of people to the Gem State, but it remains one of the fastest-growing states in the nation.
And for the second-straight year, Canyon County led all Idaho counties in total population growth.
That’s according to a report released Wednesday by the Idaho Department of Labor that drew from U.S. Census data. Idaho’s population grew by 1.3% — 25,730 people in total — from 2022 to 2023, ranking fourth in the U.S. behind South Carolina, Florida and Texas. Those numbers are down from the boom of a few years ago, when more than 117,000 people became new Idahoans in 2020 and ‘21; but the continued high-ranking growth is one sign that the state — and southwestern Idaho — will keep attracting newcomers.
“I really can’t imagine that we won’t continue to grow in the Treasure Valley,” said Jan Roeser, Labor Economist with the Department of Labor.
POST-PANDEMIC SLOWDOWN
A number of factors fueled Idaho’s rapid growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a return to mostly pre-pandemic normalcy has leveled it out.
Idaho’s population shot up by 6.6% from 2019 to 2021, when many jobs enabled remote work and people took advantage. Whether it was finding solace away from the major-city hustle and bustle, Idaho’s loose pandemic regulations, or ditching higher-priced housing, Idaho offered attractive opportunities.
But after the pandemic-era influx, “some stayed, some didn’t,” Roeser said, and historically high interest rates are tempering people’s home-buying appetites.
“It’s just kind of expensive to move right now,” Roeser said. “A lot of places have slowed down around the nation. People are in a wait-and-see position.”
Even so, Idaho’s 25,730 new residents ranked 17th, numerically, in the country. And reaching a population of 2 million is on the horizon — the state needs to grow by 1.7% to hit the benchmark next year.
2C AT THE TOP
Ada County remains Idaho’s population epicenter, but its neighbor to the west is attracting more people than anywhere else.
Canyon County’s influx of 6,782 residents was tops in the state, beating out Ada County in numerical growth for the second year in a row.
And while some of that growth can be attributed to cross-county traversing, most of it is due to out-of-state movers — 5,400 of Canyon County’s newcomers, or 79.6%, arrived from outside of Idaho.
Some of that is due to lower property costs, Roeser said; she pointed to Intermountain Multiple Listing Service numbers from February that say the median home sale price in Canyon County was $410,000 compared to $522,000 in Ada.
“They can get more of a house, more ground out there,” she said. “They can spread that cost over less-expensive real estate.”
Ada County’s growth was still strong at 1.1% — 5,669 newcomers — and the southwestern region of Idaho carried the weight of the state’s population increase. More than 14,500 people came to southwest Idaho in the last year, 57% of the state’s total growth.
Roeser credits a burgeoning business landscape — present and future — headlined by the Meta data center coming to Kuna and Micron’s fabrication plant coming to Boise.
There’s also In-N-Out, the renowned fast food hamburger restaurant chain whose expansion into Idaho shouldn’t be taken lightly, she said.
The state’s first In-N-Out opened in Meridian in December, and plans for others are in the works.
“I don’t think In-N-Out casually chooses where they put their investments,” Roeser said, “and the fact they’re putting three in the Treasure Valley, I think it means they think the Treasure Valley will continue to grow.”
This article originally appeared in the Idaho Press, read more on IdahoPress.com.
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