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Idaho water officials discuss winter outlook

A strong El Niño is expected to last through the winter months.

IDAHO, USA — Even though mild weather persists right now, wintry conditions will inevitably be headed to Idaho. Local water officials discussed the current state of Idaho's water supply and what the upcoming winter may look like.

One of the first topics discussed at the Idaho Water Supply Meeting was current reservoir levels. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation officials said, broadly, reservoirs are higher than average and higher than they were this time last year. Meaning it may aid in meeting irrigation requirements next year.

The winter outlook and the El Niño pattern that influences it was also a topic.

Troy Lindquist, a Senior Hydrologist with the National Weather Service Boise Office, said typically, for our region, an El Niño winter means warmer than average temperatures and slightly below average precipitation.

And while that is what typically happens, not every year shakes out the same.

"There's a lot of variability with El Niño in the winter time period...The variability, the uncertainty, there's just not a lot of strong signals at this particular point...We just don't know how that's going to pan out," Lindquist said.

This El Niño is expected to be a strong one. An especially strong El Niño is called a "Super El Niño." There have only been four "Super El Niños" in the past 50 years. Officials said it doesn't give many examples to base a prediction on. 

Some of the forecasts suggest Idaho could enter the "Super El Niño" territory this winter. However, a strong or "Super El Niño" does not necessarily mean no snow, some years saw near-average precipitation.

Erin Whorton, a Water Supply Specialist with NRCS, said in the meeting when considering outlook, it is also important to consider the background trends seen outside of El Niño. She futhered, in Idaho snowpack totals have been declining, there have been fewer days with snow and spring snow cover has declined in the past 60 years.

There are still a lot of unknowns but, based on the majority of data trends, Idaho will likely see warmer than average temperatures. This could lead to less mountain snow, and overall, below average precipitation.

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