BOISE, Idaho — As we reported recently, unemployment is higher in Idaho than it's been in almost two years. It's at 3%.
That number is still preliminary, so it could be adjusted. But right now, unemployment is up 0.2% from just a month ago. We’re nowhere near where unemployment was during the great recession, at more than 9% for the state and 24% in Idaho's hardest hit county, Adams County. Compared to that, we're on easy street. But it still looks like we're headed in the wrong direction.
You heard from an economist last week on KTVB who said the autoworkers' strike, labor shortages in most industries, and demand for higher wages could trigger a recession. Is Idaho's rising unemployment a sign of that? Fewer people with jobs would slow down personal spending. You combine that with higher interest rates, and you have a few bad omens.
So, time to panic, right? Not quite. I talked to Craig Shaul, a research analyst supervisor with the Idaho Department of Labor.
He points out that 3% unemployment is still relatively very low, and even those predicting economic doom don't think unemployment will go much higher, "So when we're looking at labor force, and we're looking at, should we be worried? I would say, ‘not yet.’ Even those models that are maybe projecting recession, still projected the national side unemployment rate peaking around four and a half percent."
Shaul shared some other numbers that suggest we're probably not headed for a recession. The first statistic is the number of job postings per unemployed Idahoans. We are down to one-and-a-half open jobs per jobseeker right now. That's still pretty good for workers.
But it's not so bad for employers, like a year ago, when we were at three open jobs per job seekers, and nobody could fill their empty positions. Shaul also says that Idaho still leads the nation in post-pandemic job growth at more than 10 percent. So, we do have more people wanting or needing to work, but more jobs are being created too, just not quite at the same rate.
So, again, are too many people moving here and/or joining the workforce, with not enough jobs to go around? More people are joining the workforce, with fewer jobs to go around, but it seems, not too few jobs to go around.
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