PHOENIX – The Big 12’s athletic directors and football coaches emerged Wednesday afternoon from a conference room at the Arizona Biltmore to announce, well …
A decision on the huge issues – the biggest is whether to expand membership from 10 teams – won’t come before the presidents and chancellors meet May 31-June 3, and more likely until later in the summer. At least for a few more weeks, the Never-Ending Story continues.“Nothing earth-shattering,” Iowa State athletic director Jamie Pollard said. “I hate to disappoint you.”
But it’s very possible that whenever the process finally ends, the earth won’t shatter, and that people hoping for expansion will be very disappointed.
Research shows a 12-team league playing an eight-game football schedule with a conference championship game has an increased likelihood of reaching the College Football Playoff. The football coaches got that information, along with a whole lot more, during a presentation Wednesday from Navigate Research, the Chicago-based firm hired by the Big 12.
It’s the same computer modeling previously shared with the league’s athletic directors and presidents: 40,000 simulations based on 10 years of data on every scenario you could think of, and then some more. Ten teams, 12 teams, 14 teams. Nine-game schedules. Eight. And so on.
But all of that data notwithstanding, it remains highly uncertain the Big 12’s end result will be expansion.
That’s not to say it won’t do it. But so far, even with the data that shows expanding increases the likelihood of reaching the College Football Playoff, many of the league’s powerbrokers still have some of the same significant questions they’ve always had:
Which schools? How much value do they bring? Is that enough?
Even if advanced analytics indicate a better shot at a College Football Playoff berth (as the data from Navigate Research shows), does expanding make the league fundamentally stronger?
The push for expansion from certain quarters – hello, Oklahoma president David Boren, new chairman of the league’s board of directors – remains emphatic. Some league members could be convinced to make a move. Others might never be in favor. Most appear to be in listen-and-learn mode.After discussions with multiple officials affiliated with the conference, it appears the league’s members remain divided on the issue. The results of the research might change minds, or not.
Referring to what he called the “Big Three” issues – expansion, a conference championship game and a conference network, Texas athletic director Mike Perrin said, “I can’t say I’ve got an open mind on any of these issues. I’ve got an open mind on receiving information.”
A conference network and a conference championship game could be linked to expansion or considered separately. And there are endless spinoffs – like this idea floated by one Big 12 type this week:
Remain at 10 members, but split into two five-team divisions. Keep the nine-game conference schedule, but wrap up cross-divisional play by early November. Although the round-robin schedule would guarantee a rematch in the conference championship game, there would have been several weeks, at least, between the games.
The Big 12 would get that cherished 13th data point for the Playoff selection committee to consider, like all the other Power Five Leagues. And their teams would still be playing everybody every year, unlike any other of the Power Five leagues. It would potentially be a potent combination.
That concept probably has very little chance of gaining traction, but it entered the conversation this week. It’s one of many different thoughts are percolating in league circles (another: hey, what about football-only members?) and part of the reason it has been difficult, at least so far, to find consensus on anything.
Although no one has officially mentioned the potential additions to the league, they are, in alphabetical order: BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Houston and Memphis. Navigate Research has prepared rankings of potential expansion candidates using various weighted factors desired by college presidents as well as those of TV executives. Whether any of those options are enticing enough – or whether data modeling can change minds – remains an open question.
Another question: Is reaching the Playoff now the primary factor in any decision? During the last round of realignment, TV money was the driver. And several times over the past few months, Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby has noted that if the Big 12 does nothing, it will be left behind financially by several other Power Five leagues.
“The Playoff is the topic du jour,” Bowlsby said, “but it’s far from the only factor. We could certainly accept a model for other reasons that isn’t the highest likelihood of getting into the Playoff.”
Another portion of the computer modeling from Navigate includes scenarios showing how expansion would impact bowl eligibility (playing an eight-game conference schedule, for example, would presumably increase the opportunity by providing each Big 12 school with one more non-conference game).
But back to the Playoff possibilities, and one more question posed by several: Yes, the computer modeling uses highly advanced predictive analytics.
“Their algorithm has successfully predicted all eight teams in the last two Playoff (fields),” Bowlsby said.
But selecting the Playoff field remains a decision made by 13 members of a committee that is ever-changing, both in composition and in points of emphasis. Can a subjective decision be reduced to a mathematical formula, no matter how advanced the models?
“You show us a clear-cut path (to the Playoff), I think you’d see a lot of hands go up in unison,” Baylor coach Art Briles said. “I’m not sure there is one.”
The only thing that seems clear now is that the end to the process is finally approaching. And when it comes to intangibles surrounding the looming decision, add this to the equation:
Two of the league’s 10 schools, Kansas State and Texas Tech, currently have interim presidents or chancellors. How does that affect decision-making that has significant long-term impact for their schools?
Although the presidents will ultimately make the calls on any and all of the issues, it’s worth noting that Texas’ athletic department is currently being led on an interim basis by Perrin, an alumnus and attorney. The Austin American-Statesman reported Wednesday that a search for a permanent hire would begin in the fall. By then, the Big 12 will probably have acted.
“Once we see all the pieces to the puzzle,” Bowlsby reiterated Wednesday, “we need to make a decision.”
But what that will be remains uncertain. Earth-shattering might even remain unlikely.
