USA TODAY Sports provides an in-depth look a Sunday's second-round NCAA tournament games. All times Eastern.
1.) No. 10 Syracuse vs. No. 15 Middle Tennessee State (6:10 p.m. on TNT)
► Why Syracuse (20-13) will win: Jim Boeheim’s legendary zone defense has been very good of late, but it’s particularly hard to prepare for on a 48-hour turnaround. The Blue Raiders, who might be on hangover alert anyway, will struggle to get to the rim as freely as they did against Michigan State. Freshman wing Malachi Richardson is playing with confidence (21 points against Dayton), and Syracuse simply has more ways to score one-on-one.
CINDERELLA: 6 things to know about MTSU
► Why Middle Tennessee (25-9) will win: If the Blue Raiders play with the same aggressiveness and shoot as well as they did against Michigan State, who knows how far they can go? Though Syracuse is a different look defensively, the Blue Raiders can combat that with their long-range shooting. Three starters shoot above 40% from the three-point line, and they looked quite comfortable in this gym Friday making 11 of 19.
2.) No. 2 Xavier vs. No. 7 Wisconsin (8:40 p.m. on TNT)
► Why Xavier (28-5) will win: The Musketeers have a great feel for pace and space, which is a big reason why they’re 15th in KenPom.com’s offensive efficiency ratings. They’re also athletic, tough and can get points from nearly everyone on their roster. Sophomore Trevon Bluiett, who shoots a shade under 40% from the three-point line, has the kind of explosive potential Wisconsin will struggle to match on the wings.
► Why Wisconsin (21-12) will win: The Badgers can win playing different styles, and their top-20 defense usually keeps them close enough to have a chance. With plenty of tournament experience under his belt, forward Nigel Hayes seems likely to bounce back from a 3-for-17 shooting effort, and combining with Ethan Happ on the front line gives Wisconsin plenty of size to match up with Xavier in the post.
3.) No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 14 Stephen F. Austin (2:40 p.m. on CBS)
► Why Notre Dame (22-11) will win: For 20 minutes against Michigan, the Fighting Irish didn’t look close to a Sweet 16-caliber team. Now, they’re one No. 14 seed away from getting there for the second year in a row. Mike Brey is one of the smartest coaches in the game, as evidenced by Notre Dame’s second-half adjustments (the Irish outscored the Wolverines 41-22 after halftime). His Irish won’t fall as flat as West Virginia did — or flail as much — against the aggressive Lumberjacks, who love to force turnovers.
► Why Stephen F. Austin (28-5) will win: The Lumberjacks beat West Virginia at its own game on Friday, with terrific defense and pressure and timely shooting. There’s no reason to think that Thomas Walkup and the rest of this Stephen F. Austin team won’t simply build off that impressive performance. The Lumberjacks have been in this position before — they also played for a chance to reach the Sweet 16 two years ago — and the moment won’t be too big for them.
4.) No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 11 Northern Iowa (7:45 p.m. on truTV)
► Why Texas A&M (27-8) will win: Danuel House took over in downing Wisconsin-Green Bay, solving its pressure defense and scoring 20 points. He knocked down eight of 12 shots, including a pair of three pointers. Freshman center Tyler Davis was a force with 12 points and seven rebounds as the big, physical Aggies enjoyed a 45-25 rebounding edge.
► Why Northern Iowa (23-12) will win: The Panthers are on a high after being propelled into the second round on a banked, half-court heave at the buzzer by Paul Jesperson to topple Texas. That capped a 14-point night for Jesperson that included four three-pointers. Tournament-tested UNI had five players in double figures vs. the Longhorns.
5.) No. 5 Maryland vs. No. 13 Hawaii (7:10 p.m. on TBS)
► Why Maryland (26-8) will win: Ignore the fact Maryland sweated out the final minute of its opening-round victory against South Dakota State. With Jake Layman asserting himself, the Terrapins look deep and talented enough to reach the Sweet 16, especially if they stay out of foul trouble that hampered them down the stretch on Friday.
► Why Hawaii (28-5) will win: Skeptics will note that Hawaii on Friday notched its first NCAA victory in program history against the depleted Cal Bears, who were missing their leading scorer and another starter. But don’t forget, the Cal team Hawaii vanquished still included two projected NBA lottery picks. Big West Player of the Year Stefan Jankovic and his teammates at Hawaii look capable of another upset.
6.) No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 10 Virginia Commonwealth (5:15 p.m. on CBS)
► Why Oklahoma (26-7) will win: The nation’s second-leading scorer, Buddy Hield, showed no signs of slowing down in an opening win over Cal State-Bakersfield, scoring 27 points. He has scored at least 25 points 17 times this season. The Sooners shot 50% and knocked down 11 three pointers.
► Why Virginia Commonwealth (25-10) will win: Mo Alie-Cox was a terror in a first-round win over Oregon State. He scored 20 points, grabbed eight rebounds and blocked three shots. Teammate JeQuan Lewis (21 points) can take over a game. The Rams can board, outrebounding the Beavers 40-28. Their defense came up big, pressing OSU into errors to thwart a comeback.
7.) No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 7 Iowa (12:10 p.m. on CBS)
► Why Villanova (30-5) will win: The Wildcats know how much they need to win this game, and so they will. They haven’t been past the NCAA tournament’s first weekend since they reached the Final Four in 2009; this is the remaining obstacle for getting this monkey off their backs. Villanova dismantled its first-round opponent, UNC Asheville, exactly as it should on Friday. A team such as Iowa, which slumped heading into the postseason and barely eked out a win in overtime to reach the second round, should be just what the doctor ordered, exactly what the Wildcats need to break out of their March rut.
► Why Iowa (22-10) will win: The Hawkeyes have talent and have terrific shooters. Jarrod Uthoff and Peter Jok are both capable of getting red hot at any time. Though Iowa lost five of six heading into the NCAA tournament, it righted its ship a bit with its first-round win against Temple on Friday. It wasn’t the most convincing or compelling victory, but it was along the right track and may be enough to spark an upset on Sunday. Or at least enough to spook Villanova enough that its players — who have fallen short of the Sweet 16 multiple times before — play tight.
8.) No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 St. Joseph’s (9:40 p.m. on TBS)
► Why Oregon (29-6) will win: Oregon could have treated its opening-round matchup against 16th-seeded Holy Cross like a warmup exercise. No chance. Instead, the Ducks flexed their muscles in a 91-52 victory, and that combination of focus and ferocity can power them past St. Joseph’s into the Sweet 16.
► Why St. Joseph’s (28-7) will win: A waved-off dunk just at the buzzer saved St. Joseph’s from possible overtime, and defeat, in its opening-round squeaker against Cincinnati. Whether it was the basketball gods or mojo, St. Joseph’s, as impressive as it has looked, will need more of the same to get past Oregon.
Capsule breakdowns by Gerry Ahern, George Schroeder, Josh Peter, Dan Wolken and Nicole Auerbach.
NCAA TOURNAMENT SECOND-ROUND HIGHLIGHTS
