NORFOLK, Va. —
Tracking the Tropical Atlantic
As we enter the last month of Hurricane Season, we still have activity brewing in the Caribbean.
Rafael became a hurricane after a special advisory earlier Tuesday evening. As of the 10 p.m. advisory Rafael remains a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 80 mph and gusts up to 100 mph. Rafael is moving to the NW at 13 mph.
Rafael should reach western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where a life-threatening storm surge and destructive waves are also expected.
Tropical Storm warnings are up for Jamaica, central Cuba, and the Florida Keys. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Additionally, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for east-central Cuba.
Rafael will exit Cuba, making its way into the southern Gulf of Mexico where the environment becomes less favorable for re-strengthening. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.
Where Rafael goes after that is still uncertain. Some global models pull the system closer to Louisiana. Others forecast that Rafael may tread closer to Alabama.
We are also watching another potential tropical development area north of Hispaniola that has a 30% chance of development within the next week.
A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Portions of this system are forecast to move westward during the next day or so and could form a low pressure near the northern Leeward by Thursday. Afterward, some slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of the week while it moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic.
The hurricane season runs through the end of November, so we aren't quite done yet.
For more about the 2024 hurricane season, check out our 2024 Hurricane Guide here.
