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The NET Effect: 'The numbers tell a story;' who Bronco Nation should root for on Saturday

With San Diego State, Boise State, Nevada, Utah State and New Mexico all in the top 50 of the latest NET rankings, the Mountain West is as deep as its ever been.

BOISE, Idaho — With Selection Sunday only 15 days away, Boise State head basketball coach Leon Rice brought up an interesting point about the Mountain West being a multi-bid league.

“The numbers tell a story,” Rice said. “They used them against us all those years, I would think they would use them [for us this year].”

In years past, it was easier to discredit the Mountain West than it is this season. The league was top heavy, with San Diego State – and occasionally Nevada – serving as the “top” in the eyes of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

But with San Diego State (16), Boise State (23), Nevada (32), Utah State (34) and New Mexico (47) all in the top 50 of the latest NET rankings, the league is as deep as its ever been.

“[The Mountain West has] always been such a challenge,” Rice said. “Now it’s maybe getting the statistical and analytical respect you always felt like it deserved.”

In the five-year history of the NET rankings, the Mountain West has never ranked higher than the eighth-best league in college basketball, and more often than not struggled to crack the top 10.

NET Average Rankings for Mountain West - by Season:

  • 2022-23: 5th (87.4)
  • 2021-22: 8th (113.0)
  • 2020-21: 13th (163.73)
  • 2019-20: 10th (138.1)
  • 2018-19: 12th (166.6)

What are the NET rankings?

It’s an evaluation system created by the NCAA in 2018, to better determine the who’s who of college basketball. They focus on efficiency - instead of winning percentage and margin of victory - and adjusted strength of schedule, with opponent and the location of the game serving as primary factors.

So, if the numbers tell a story, then the Mountain West deserves to be on the best sellers list this season. The league is the premier conference out West, and one of the best in all of college basketball, according to the NET rankings.

Average NET Ranking by Conference:

  1. Big 12: 27.9
  2. Big Ten: 57.7
  3. SEC: 71.1
  4. Big East: 78.9
  5. Mountain West: 87.5
  6. Pac-12: 93.9
  7. ACC: 109.0
  8. West Coast: 119.5
  9. AAC: 128.3
  10. C-USA: 140.8

A big reason for the big jump is how Mountain West teams attacked their non-conference. A huge feather-in-the-cap for the league is winning 72% of those games.

“We went out and everyone scheduled really good, everybody went and played preseason games that were challenging and right for them, and we went and won them,” Rice said. “We’re not in that position without everybody pulling their weight. Collectively, it is amazing.”

The Bronco Roundup

Credit: Boise State University Athletics

Boise State is attacking the most difficult four-game stretch of its season right now. They are coming off a Quad 2 win at home against New Mexico and will play one more Quad 2 game on Saturday, before wrapping up with back-to-back Quad 1 games next week.

A look at their upcoming slate of games for the Broncos:

  • Saturday, Feb. 25 – at San Jose State (NET106)
  • Tuesday, Feb. 28 – vs San Diego State (NET16)
  • Saturday, March 4 – at Utah State (NET34)

In the eyes of a number of college basketball analysts, the Broncos are no lock to make the NCAA Tournament, but with this schedule, two more wins would go a long way on Selection Sunday.

Wins by Quadrant

  • Q1: vs Texas A&M*
  • Q2: vs Washington State*, vs Colorado*, at Saint Louis, vs Utah State, at UNLV, vs Nevada, at Colorado State, vs New Mexico
  • Q3: vs Utah Valley, vs SJSU, at Wyoming, vs Colorado State, at Air Force, vs UNLV
  • Q4: vs Loyola Chicago*, vs CSUN, vs New Orleans, vs Oakland, vs Fresno State, Wyoming

Losses by Quadrant

  • Q1: at Nevada, at New Mexico, at SDSU
  • Q2: at Santa Clara
  • Q3: vs Charlotte*, vs South Dakota State
  • Q4: None

*Played at neutral site

NET Gains: Opponents on the Rise

Credit: AP
Boise State forward Naje Smith (23) attempts to drive to the basket past Texas A&M guard Dexter Dennis (0) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in Fort Worth, Texas, Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/Emil Lippe)

Charlotte (NET105): The 49ers landed one of the biggest victories of the season, knocking off NET51 North Texas, 55-49, on Thursday. The Broncos would love for Charlotte to climb back inside the top 100. That would push one of Boise State’s two Quad 3 losses back into Quad 2.

  • Result vs. Boise State: W, 54-42
  • Next: vs Rice (NET171) – Saturday, Feb. 25 – 2 p.m. (ESPN+)

South Dakota State (NET148): The Jackrabbits, winners of seven-straight games, have really helped Boise State out lately. They’ve climbed almost 30 spots in the month of February, ascending all the way to No. 148 in the NET. As long as they stay in the top 160, then the Broncos will avoid having a Quad 4 loss on their resume. South Dakota State wraps up the regular season on Saturday.

  • Result vs. Boise State: W, 68-66
  • Next: vs Oral Roberts (NET44) – Saturday, Feb. 25 – 1 p.m.

Texas A&M (NET24): The Aggies have experienced one of the best turnarounds in college basketball this season. They were No. 113 in the NET rankings in late December. Now they’re 24, but they’ve climbed as high as 22nd. Texas A&M only sits one game behind Alabama for first place in the SEC.

  • Result vs. Boise State: L, 86-71
  • This week: at Mississippi State (NET43) – Saturday, Feb. 25 – 1:30 p.m. (SEC Network)

Caught up in the NET: Opponents Hurting Resume

Credit: Tyler McFarland/Boise State Athletics
Boise State’s Lukas Milner goes up for a dunk against UNLV in a Mountain West game in ExtraMile Arena, Sunday, Feb. 19, 2023. The Broncos won 73-69.

Saint Louis (NET100): With just three games left in the regular season, I’ve pretty much lost hope that the Billikens can climb back into the top 75. Boise State victory over Saint Louis is pretty much a lock to remain in Quad 2. It doesn’t hurt the Broncos but considering that risk they took on for this non-conference matchup, they would love to get credited with a Quad 1 win.

  • Result vs. Boise State: L, 57-52
  • Next: vs Loyola Chicago (NET268) – Saturday, Feb. 25 – 4 p.m. MT (CBSSN)

Santa Clara (NET84): The Broncos are running out of time to go on a run. With five games left they sit at No. 90 in the NET rankings. Boise State needs them to get back in the top 75, so their Quad 2 loss moves to Quad 1.

  • Result vs. Boise State: W, 73-58
  • This week: at San Diego (NET216) – Saturday, Feb. 25 – 8 p.m.

UNLV (NET85): The Runnin’ Rebels snapped a three-game losing streak with a 54-53 victory over Air Force on Friday. Boise State needs UNLV to rejoin the top 75 so they can get credited with a Quad 1 victory. I doubt they’ll do it, but with NET34 Utah State and NET31 Nevada left on the regular season schedule, the Runnin’ Rebels to have a chance to make a jump.

  • Result vs. Boise State: L, 84-66; L, 73-69
  • This week: vs Utah State (NET34) – Wednesday, March 1 – 9 p.m. (MW Network)

Utah Valley (NET81): The Wolverines briefly jumped up to No. 73 in the NET rankings this week, but they dropped back seven spots following a blowout loss at NET160 Tarleton State on Thursday. The Broncos need Utah Valley to slide back into the top 75 to reclaim a Quad 2 win.

  • Result vs. Boise State: L, 87-69
  • This week: at Abilene Christian (NET199) – Saturday, Feb. 25 – 5 p.m. (ESPN+)

Who To Root For on Saturday

There are a number of games that could impact Boise State’s resume on Saturday. Root for the team in BOLD.

  • Arkansas (+8.0) at Alabama – 12 p.m. (ESPN2)
  • Oral Roberts at South Dakota State (+5.0) – 1 p.m. (None)
  • Texas A&M (+1.5) at Mississippi State – 1:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
  • Rice at Charlotte (-6.5) – 2 p.m. (ESPN+)
  • Loyola Chicago at Saint Louis (-11.0) – 4 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
  • Utah Valley (-2.0) at Abilene Christian – 5 p.m. (ESPN+)
  • Santa Clara (-7.5) at San Diego – 8 p.m. (None)
  • San Diego State at New Mexico (+3.0) – 8 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)

First and foremost, if the New Mexico can beat San Diego State, then Boise State would have a chance to clinch at least a share of the Mountain West regular season title when the Aztecs visit ExtraMile Arena on Tueseday. Secondly, you’ll notice I listed the Arkansas-Alabama game. Why? No, Boise State didn’t play either of them, but if Alabama were to lose and Texas A&M were to win today, then the Bronco would have a victory over the Aggies, who would be tied for first place in the SEC.

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