BOISE, Idaho — The Spencer Danielson era at Boise State got off to a great start Saturday in Logan. The traditional Gatorade bath capped off what was the Broncos' most dominant win of the season, 45-10 over rival Utah State.
Throughout the week leading up to the Mountain West matchup, Boise State was fired up for Danielson's debut as the interim head coach, with a slim chance of getting into the conference championship game if it beat the Aggies.
Boise State was focused on what it could control on the heels of the dismissal of Andy Avalos. As it turns out, maybe the universe loves the Broncos, because the things they couldn't control also have gone in their favor.
Back on Nov. 11, Air Force fell to Hawaii 27-13 on the road for just its second loss of the season after starting 8-0. The Falcons were favored in the contest by 19.5. Boise State could hold the tiebreaker over Air Force if it wins on The Blue on Friday.
Immediately following the Broncos' rout of Utah State on Saturday, New Mexico went into Fresno and took down the Bulldogs 25-17 on the road for the first time since 1994.
Fresno State was a 23.5-point favorite to win the game on senior day and would've had the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos with a victory. The loss to the Lobos eliminated the Bulldogs entirely in the race for a spot in the Mountain West title game.
The odds of all this happening were about 87-1, meaning if you bet $100 on the New Mexico and Hawaii moneyline together, it would have paid $8,700. Danielson on Monday described what it was like for the Broncos to watch the pieces fall into place.
"That's the beautiful part about college football, you know, every week is a new week. We landed back in Boise and everybody pulled their phones out and it was – no one really moved from after we landed, because I think it was like four or five minutes left in the (New Mexico) game," Danielson said. "We definitely stayed there and checked the score of that game. That's all we wanted was an opportunity. We got one, it's Friday at 2 p.m. with all the marbles – same for Air Force – and we can't wait."
So, what is the path to put Boise State in the Mountain West title game? First and foremost, the Broncos need to beat Air Force on Friday at Albertsons Stadium.
Not only is this always a big game for the Broncos, but the Falcons are in the exact same position as Boise State, so Air Force will be fired up heading out to The Blue looking to snap a three-game skid.
Beyond that, it gets more confusing. Boise State's easiest path forward is for UNLV to beat San Jose State on Saturday following a Bronco win on Black Friday. The Rebels would earn the right to host the championship game at 1 p.m. MT on Saturday, Dec. 2 with a win over the Spartans this week.
It is worth noting UNLV's home is Allegiant Stadium, where the Pac-12 Championship Game is scheduled for 6 p.m. MT on Friday, Dec. 1, the day before the Mountain West title bout.
If San Jose State beats UNLV, that would create a three-way tie between Boise State, San Jose State and UNLV, which would be settled by a computer algorithm to pick the top-two teams. The Rebels would likely take the top spot.
At the moment, Boise State and San Jose State are extremely close in the computer rankings. Anderson & Hester was the last to reveal their updated rankings Sunday night, placing Boise State at No. 71 and San Jose State at No. 72.
The computer averages that would determine a potential three-way tiebreaker are included below. Again, the rankings would only be used if Boise State beat Air Force and San Jose State upset UNLV. Right now, the Broncos are in a great spot with a win, but the Spartans could earn a big boost with a win over the Rebels.
- UNLV: 34.8
- Boise State: 64.0
- San Jose State: 71.3
To make it simple for Bronco Nation, you are rooting for Boise State on Friday – obviously – and then UNLV on Saturday against San Jose State. Friday's contest against Air Force kicks off at 2 p.m. MT at Albertsons Stadium and will be televised on Fox Sports 1.
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